Funds increase their holdings in the non-ferrous metal industry in the second quarter

Author: Huali
In the second quarter of this year, public funds increased their holdings in the non-ferrous metals industry, and the non-ferrous metals industry’s stock market value accounted for 1.68% of the stock investment market value. According to the 2021 semi-annual report of public offering funds, the author counted 5193 active equity funds in the entire market, including common stock funds, partial equity hybrid funds, balanced hybrid funds, and flexible allocation funds. The proportion of the metal industry was quantitatively analyzed. Since the active allocation of public offering funds is more flexible in style and more sensitive to market response, they can often become a market vane to a certain extent and understand the current market’s preferences for various industries. The fund’s allocation to the A-share non-ferrous metal industry is measured by the ratio of the A-share non-ferrous metal industry holdings in the fund’s top ten heavyweight stocks to the fund’s stock investment market value.
In the second quarter, the momentum of domestic economic growth gradually weakened, liquidity reappeared signs of marginal easing, and domestic industrial policies further clearly shifted to support the development of hard-core technology and high-end manufacturing. These favorable factors made the growth style replace the cycle and Value style has become the mainstream of the market. The fund’s increase in the hard-core technology industry and high-end manufacturing industry chain upstream raw materials, non-ferrous metal sub-sectors with growth attributes, also caused the overall non-ferrous metal industry’s position in the fund to rise instead of falling in the second quarter. In the second quarter, the fund non-ferrous metals industry’s stock market value accounted for 1.68% of the stock investment market value, which was an increase of 0.2% from 1.48% in the first quarter of this year.
In terms of the standard allocation level, in the second quarter, the allocation of public funds to the non-ferrous metal industry was still at a low allocation level. The author regards the industry’s circulating market value/A-share circulating market value as the industry’s standard allocation level. According to the heavy holdings of public funds, the fund’s allocation to the non-ferrous metal industry reached the bottom in the fourth quarter of 2013, and continued to increase its holdings of non-ferrous metals since the first quarter of 2014. industry. Since then, public funds have continued to increase their holdings in the non-ferrous metal industry. Until the third quarter of 2017, the fund significantly increased its holdings in the non-ferrous metal industry, which became the closest fund allocation to the non-ferrous metal industry since 2010. Since then, as the downward pressure on the domestic economy has increased and the performance growth of non-ferrous metal companies has begun to marginally decline, funds have gradually reduced their holdings in the non-ferrous metal industry, which has caused the level of allocation of the non-ferrous metal industry to increase again compared with the standard level. . In the fourth quarter of 2019, the fund regained its holdings in the non-ferrous metals industry in anticipation of the domestic macroeconomic recovery, but under the influence of the epidemic in the first quarter of 2020, it reduced its holdings in the non-ferrous metals industry. In the second quarter of 2020, when the economy bottomed out and rebounded, the fund began to regain its holdings in the non-ferrous metal industry, and increased its holdings in the non-ferrous metal industry significantly for three consecutive quarters.
In the context of style changes and structural opportunities, in the second quarter of this year, funds increased their holdings in the non-ferrous metal industry, and the ratio of the stock market value of the non-ferrous metal industry holdings to the market value of stock investment rose to 1.68%. However, the ratio of the market value of non-ferrous metals in circulation to the market value of A shares in the same period was 3.06%. The fund’s allocation to the non-ferrous metal industry is still lower than the standard allocation level, and the low allocation deviation is lower than the 2020Q1 month-on-month.
In the second quarter, the fund fully reduced its holdings of the secondary sub-sectors of the ferrous metal industry. We divide non-ferrous metal stocks into four major sectors: industrial metals, gold, rare metals, and metal non-metal new materials according to the secondary sub-industry classification of the non-ferrous metals industry, and separately calculate the proportion of the market value of each sub-industry of the fund to the market value of the fund’s stock investment. Understand the configuration of the secondary sub-sectors of the non-ferrous metal industry.
In the second quarter, the market value of industrial metals, gold, rare metals, metal and non-metal new materials held by the fund in the second quarter accounted for 0.39%, 0.04%, 1.12%, and 0.14% of the fund’s stock investment market value, respectively, which was a change of -0.16% from the second quarter. , +0.01%, +0.34%, +0.01%.
From the perspective of the third-level sub-sectors of the non-ferrous metal industry, the fund has increased its positions in the upstream raw material sector of lithium batteries, and the copper sector has been greatly reduced.
The author divides the non-ferrous metal industry stocks into 11 sub-sectors of copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, gold, rare earth, tungsten, lithium, other rare metals, new metal materials, magnetic materials, and new non-metal materials according to the three-level sub-industry classification of non-ferrous metals. , And separately calculate the proportion of the market value of each sub-sector of the fund’s heavy warehouses to the market value of the fund’s stock investment, and understand the allocation of the third-level sub-sectors of the non-ferrous metal industry.
In the second quarter, copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, gold, rare earths, tungsten, lithium, other rare metals, new metal materials, magnetic materials, and non-metal new materials sector funds held stock market capitalization as a percentage of the fund’s stock investment market capitalization, respectively. 0.10%, 0.01%, 0.04%, 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.55%, 0.55%, 0.06%, 0.01%, 0.07%, which are respectively -0.17%, +0.03%, -0.01%, +0.01 from the first quarter %, +0.004%, +0.002%, +0.08%, +0.26%, +0.003%, -0.01%, +0.02%.
Under the stimulus of over-expected growth in production and sales, and the favorable policies, the prosperity of the new energy automobile industry chain and the certainty of future development trends continue to increase. The third quarter enters the peak season for new energy vehicle production and sales, and the expansion of cathode material production capacity is about to be released. With the expectation that cathode manufacturers and battery manufacturers are actively stocking and scheduling plans to increase significantly, the demand for lithium and cobalt salts is expected to further increase in the third quarter. The price of cobalt and lithium is expected to accelerate in the third quarter when the shortage of lithium resources throughout the year is confirmed and the turmoil and epidemic in South Africa disrupt the supply of cobalt raw materials. The market style has once again turned to the direction of growth, and the fund increased its allocation to the upstream raw material sector of the semiconductor and new energy automobile industry chain in the second quarter.
(Author’s unit: China Galaxy Securities)

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