On July 22, Fan Shunke, Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and Chairman of the China Nonferrous Metals Processing Industry Association, gave a titled “Fenji” at the 2021 China Aluminum Processing Industry Annual Conference and China (Huzhou) Aluminum Processing Green Manufacturing Summit Forum. Striving to Promote the High-Quality Development of China’s Aluminum Processing Industry” the theme report, in-depth analysis of the basic situation, development advantages and characteristics of my country’s aluminum processing industry, the main problems and challenges currently facing, and put forward the industry’s thoughts and ideas on high-quality development Suggest.
The aluminum processing industry handed in a brilliant answer sheet
In 2020, under the strength of the Communist Party of China, China’s aluminum processing industry has withstood the impact of the global new crown pneumonia epidemic, handed in a brilliant answer sheet, and became a country that achieved positive growth in production and consumption among major economies. It is specifically manifested in the following aspects:
First, the output of aluminum materials has achieved higher-than-expected growth. According to statistics from the China Nonferrous Metal Processing Industry Association and Antaike, in 2020, my country’s aluminum output will reach 42.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 5.0%, ranking it for 14 consecutive years.
Second, the main economic indicators of the entire industry are improving. The industry-wide average sales profit margin rebounded to 2.7%, an increase of 0.8% over the previous year; the asset-liability ratio was 59.08%, which has achieved a decline since 2014, and the industry-wide production efficiency far exceeded expectations.
Third, the export volume of my country’s aluminum products has steadily declined slightly. In 2020, due to the decline in demand caused by the new crown epidemic abroad and the impact of trade frictions, China’s exports of aluminum products totaled 4.65 million tons, a decrease of 9.7%, and the export areas still cover 210 countries and regions. Since the beginning of this year, my country’s aluminum export orders have increased significantly, and it is estimated that China’s aluminum exports for the whole year are expected to return to the annual level of 5 million tons.
The fourth is the continuous enhancement of innovation and development capabilities. As of the end of 2020, the number of patent applications in the domestic aluminum processing industry has reached 9,524, and the number of patents in the industry continues to be the highest; it has 20 national enterprise technology centers and 2 branch centers; Chinese standards and characteristics, wide coverage, and aluminum processing have been released There are a total of 196 product standards; China’s aluminum processing industry has further increased the investment in science and technology, and the average R&D investment of 22 listed aluminum processing companies in A-shares has reached 2.76%; independent innovation capabilities have increased, printing plate bases, aluminum foil blanks, aluminum alloy cans, The supply of construction and industrial profiles and other products has been fully localized and exported in batches.
Fifth, aluminum material satisfies the national strategy and people’s livelihood needs well. In the defense and military industry, responding to the outbreak of the epidemic, and meeting the needs of the people for a better life, the aluminum processing industry’s support capabilities have been significantly improved; represented by Chinalco, Nanshan Aluminum, Guangdong Xinhe Aluminum, and Qingdao Weiler The majority of aluminum processing companies are actively fulfilling their social responsibilities in the fight against the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
Sixth, the development of industrial clusters is increasing. In recent years, several aluminum extrusion industry clusters with their own characteristics have gradually formed in Nanhai, Guangdong, Linqu, Shandong, and Huzhou, Zhejiang; aluminum sheet and strip development clusters in Gongyi, Shandong, and Chongqing Xipeng have basically taken shape; Suixi, Anhui has gradually formed aluminum foil and The downstream deep processing industry clusters are closely integrated, with continuous cluster supporting facilities, lower comprehensive factor costs, and enhanced competitiveness.
Seventh, the strength of the enterprise continues to increase, and new and specialized enterprises continue to emerge. At present, the aluminum production of Chinalco Manufacturing, Nanshan Aluminum, and Mingtai Aluminum have all entered the million-tonne camp, and companies such as Dingsheng New Materials, Innovative Metals, and Guangdong Xingfa Aluminum have entered the ranks of aluminum processing enterprises. In addition, specialized and special new enterprises represented by Southwest Aluminum, Guangdong Jianmagnesium Aluminum, and Ningbo Kono insist on focusing on their main business, practicing hard work, and strengthening innovation, and are striving to become “singles” or “supporting” masters of unique skills. expert”.
Advantages of aluminum processing industry
After more than 40 years of hard work, my country’s aluminum processing industry has developed its own advantages and characteristics:
The first is the scale of the industry. In 2020, China’s aluminum processing industry can be said to accelerate the curve, and the global share of output will increase significantly. Aluminum production reached 42.1 million tons/year, accounting for 67.5% of the global total, of which aluminum extrusion production was 23.18 million tons/year, accounting for more than 72% of the world; aluminum sheet and strip production was 11.85 million tons/year, accounting for 44% of the world’s total ; Aluminum foil production is 4.15 million tons per year, accounting for 66.9% of the world, both of which are the largest in the world.
Second, the industrial chain is complete, with a high degree of autonomy and control. my country’s aluminum processing industry has formed a relatively complete industrial chain. Aluminum products such as plates, strips, foils, tubes, rods, shapes, wires, powders, forgings and other aluminum products, varieties and specifications can be produced independently, with a high degree of controllability. There is a “stuck neck” link.
The third is the international level of equipment, and the domestically-made equipment has improved rapidly. On the one hand, my country imports a large amount of equipment, and the number of technical equipment exceeds that of any country, and most of these equipment were manufactured in this century. Most of the equipment was built in a relatively short time, and the advantage of latecomers is obvious. On the other hand, domestic equipment has improved rapidly, high, medium, and low grades are reasonably matched, and the overall level is developed rapidly with domestic extrusion presses, hot continuous rolling, cold rolling and other main equipment. Zhuoshen, Northern Heavy Industry, A group of equipment and auxiliary materials companies such as Jiangshun Technology have not only equipped Chinese companies, but also achieved complete sets of exports.
Fourth, the product quality is good, and the international competitiveness is constantly improving. At present, aluminum extrusion is a competitive advantage in our country. Aluminum strips such as can materials and CTP plate base plates have gradually entered the stage. Aluminum foils such as food packaging aluminum foil and battery foil have also begun to be in line with international standards. Overall, the proportion of my country’s direct exports of aluminum is about 11%, and the proportion of direct and indirect exports is 23%. It has been deeply integrated into the global industrial chain supply chain system and has made China’s contribution to the development of the aluminum processing industry.
Fifth, the surface treatment and deep processing fields are coming from behind. On the one hand, there are more than 1,200 surface treatment production lines nationwide, and even surface treatment enterprises have been established; on the other hand, the extension of deep processing has opened up a new path for aluminum processing in China, especially in aluminum furniture, urban aluminum, and aluminum foil restaurants. Boxes and other fields internationally.
Sixth, the consumption of aluminum products is mainly domestic, and it also has a broad market space. my country is a large country with a population of 1.4 billion. The new urbanization process is advancing steadily. The urbanization rate has just exceeded 63%. It is still in the critical stage of urbanization and will continue to bring demand for “quantity” to the industry. 5G, new infrastructure, New energy and other industries will also bring “quality” improvement. In addition, under the requirements of the “dual carbon” target, aluminum will play an important role in boosting end applications.
While seeing the achievements, we must also face the difficulties and challenges. At present, the situation of epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery is still severe, the external environment is complex and changeable, the global industrial chain supply chain is accelerating restructuring, unilateralism and trade protectionism are on the rise, and China’s aluminum processing industry is also facing consumption peaking and independent innovation Insufficiency, overcapacity, large fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, green and low-carbon production pressures, and the increasing uncertainty of aluminum exports due to the complex and volatile international trade environment, seriously threaten the stable operation and future sustainability of the industry develop.
This year is the first year of the “14th Five-Year Plan”. We must conscientiously implement the major decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, based on the new development stage, implement the new development concept, build a new development pattern, scientifically adapt and actively seek changes, and strive to realize the industry Towards high quality.
Based on the new stage of development, the aluminum processing industry is still promising and promising
my country’s aluminum consumption still has room for growth. First, my country’s current macro environment is generally stable and improving, and the long-term economic fundamentals have not changed. GDP is expected to continue to maintain a 5% growth. Moreover, my country’s control of the epidemic and effective containment of local epidemics are the basic conditions for the development of the aluminum processing industry; The second is the people’s yearning and need for a better life. The internal circulation has always been the driving force for the development of China’s aluminum industry and aluminum industry chain; the third is policy support and continuous optimization of the business environment also provide a platform for the development of the aluminum processing industry. In the “Guiding Opinions on Strengthening the Prevention and Control of the Eco-Environmental Source of Construction Projects with High Energy Consumption and High Emissions” issued by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment on May 31 this year, it is clear that aluminum processing is not included in the control of the “two highs”, and since last year, National policies on aluminum-related standards, stabilizing aluminum prices, and guidance for manufacturing companies are also clearing obstacles and paving the way for the development of the aluminum processing industry.
Resolutely implement the new development concept, especially insist on innovation and green development
One is to insist on putting innovation and development in place. It is necessary to break the problem of product “stuck neck”, focus on national demand, national strategically targeted innovation, adhere to demand-oriented and problem-oriented, joint research and development with upstream and downstream customers, integrate and optimize the allocation of scientific and technological resources, and achieve high prices and high prices through effective innovation. Quality development; it is necessary to promote the innovation of management and marketing models, deepen the reform of the enterprise mechanism, be market-oriented, strive-oriented, and attach importance to the cultivation of industry scientific and technological talents.
The second is to adhere to the bottom line of green, low-carbon and environmental protection. The majority of aluminum processing enterprises must deeply understand the connotation of the “dual carbon” target, actively implement the “dual carbon” target requirements, make clear that the green and low-carbon transition is also the global trend and the future competitive high ground, and strictly demand the relationship between the development of the aluminum processing industry and the ecological environment . At the same time, strengthen the internal green development of the enterprise, promote the harmless and resourceful treatment of solid waste and hazardous waste, and strengthen the research and resource recycling level of scrap aluminum recycling technology.
According to Antaike’s preliminary estimates, my country’s non-ferrous metal industry will emit about 714 million tons of carbon dioxide in 2020; the total emissions of the aluminum industry chain will be about 558 million tons, accounting for 78.1% of the non-ferrous metal industry, of which the aluminum smelting industry will emit 526 million tons. In addition to the production of auxiliary materials such as carbon and fluoride salts, the total emissions of the aluminum industry were 572 million tons, the electrolytic aluminum industry accounted for 78.3%, and the processing industry accounted for 5.4%. Generally speaking, the carbon emission pressure of the aluminum processing industry is not great, and aluminum materials will play an important role in helping end applications to achieve the “dual-carbon” goal. Especially the lightweight of my country’s transportation sector is in its infancy, and there is still a lot of progress. Expansion capacity.
Actively integrate into the national strategy and create a new pattern of dual-cycle aluminum processing
First, the aluminum processing industry must deeply understand the new changes, tap the potential and role of my country as a big market, actively integrate into the national strategy, and gradually form a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles mutually promoting each other.
It is necessary to actively open up the “internal cycle”, actively tap the performance advantages of aluminum, explore new applications and fields of aluminum, adjust product structure, strive to tap domestic demand, and promote and promote new applications of aluminum, especially in new energy vehicles, consumer electronics, and medicine. , Food, beverage, dairy industry, e-commerce, fast-moving food, tourism, environmentally friendly products, logistics and other innovative applications in the blue ocean field.
It is necessary to actively expand the “outer circle” and do not give up the export market lightly. Export is still an important engine for the development of China’s aluminum processing. Enterprises should open up diversified markets, increase international trade taxation, logistics and other planning, continue to research and develop new products, and strive for product exports. At the same time, in the face of trade frictions, companies must take the initiative to actively respond to lawsuits, safeguard their legitimate rights and interests, and unite and cope with them together.
The second is product characteristics, and do the “three persistences” well.
Adhere to the development direction of the integration of aluminum recycling and processing. Since 2002, China’s aluminum consumption has been in the top position, and the aluminum life cycle is about 15 to 18 years. It can be seen from this that, after years of development, the output of secondary aluminum will inevitably increase. Secondly, the use of recycled aluminum will not affect product quality, and it is becoming a requirement of more and more downstream customers. For example, Novelis created the world’s largest closed-loop recycling system for automotive scrap aluminum. The proportion of recycled aluminum used in its production raw materials has reached 61% in 2019, and the product quality is still in the industry.
Adhere to the direction of upgrading, transformation and intelligent development. Intelligence is no longer an elective course for manufacturing enterprises, and is gradually becoming a required course. Promoting industrial upgrading and intelligentization, on the one hand, can solve the problems of labor shortage, difficulty in recruiting, and expensive labor; on the other hand, it can also make the production process continuously optimized and easy to control, and improve the repetition of labor machinery and reduce labor intensity. At present, aluminum processing enterprises represented by Wanbond Dongliang Aluminum have begun to try to promote intelligent upgrading and transformation of the entire plant, setting a good industry benchmark.
Insist on deep processing and extension unshakable. Deep processing has created a new business card for China’s aluminum processing industry, and has developed special products such as flood control baffles, aluminum system doors and windows, aluminum alloy pedestrian bridges, auto parts and motorcycle parts, aluminum foil lunch boxes, etc. Extending to deep processing not only increases the added value of products, but also promotes employment, meets the customized needs of customers, and provides customers with more effective and better services.
The third is self-reliance and self-reliance, and do your own thing well.
The existing aluminum processing industry clusters must strengthen their confidence in development, create policy depressions, optimize the business environment, cultivate key points, actively supplement the chain and extend the chain to strengthen the chain, firmly grasp the development opportunities, and take the road of “specialization, special new” industrial cluster development.
For the majority of aluminum processing enterprises, they must be self-reliant and tap market potential; strive to prevent various risks, such as large fluctuations in aluminum prices, ecological and environmental risks, production and epidemic prevention and control risks, as well as entrepreneurial moral hazards and corporate inheritance risks.
The whole industry must strengthen its awareness of industry self-discipline and avoid vicious competition. For example, use the summit forum held by the processing association as a platform to establish an exchange and cooperation mechanism among peers, build a community of shared future for the aluminum processing industry, and consolidate the consensus of the top aluminum processing power.
Aluminum prices should be stable
In May of this year, aluminum prices hit 20,435 yuan/ton, up 34% from the beginning of 2021 and 45% from the beginning of 2020, setting a new 10-year high since July 2011. Although there have been recent adjustments, they are still consolidating at a high level. The reasons for this round of aluminum price increase can be attributed to the “four supporting” factors: First, the unprecedented monetary easing environment has promoted this round of aluminum prices; second, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity “ceiling” the worry of oversupply; third, the “double carbon” “The goal has strengthened the expectation of favorable prices and the impact of dual energy control on output in some regions, which has boosted prices; fourth, the continued economic recovery after the epidemic has been brought under control has strengthened market confidence.
There are also “two differences” in the current round of aluminum price increases. One is different from the copper and steel industries. Although the resource dependence of my country’s aluminum industry is more than 50%, more than 50% of imported bauxite comes from overseas equity mines owned by Chinese companies. This time, the profits are basically obtained by our electrolytic aluminum companies. Second, this round of price increases is different from previous price increases. In the past, when prices increased, alumina and anode carbon all increased, and the benefits of price increases were scattered. The price increase this time is only the increase in the price of electrolytic aluminum, and the price of alumina, carbon and electrolytic aluminum have not risen much. The profit point of the aluminum industry chain is concentrated in China’s electrolytic aluminum production link, and the profit per ton of aluminum has exceeded 4,000 yuan. In addition, the downstream aluminum consumption has not significantly improved, and it is not good enough to support such high aluminum prices.
Facing the future, aluminum price speculators should not underestimate the macro-control effects of policies and the government’s determination to stabilize commodity prices. Aluminum prices should be stable, and be wary of price fluctuations. Historical experience tells us that there must be a big fall after a big rise. Only a suitable and relatively stable price is conducive to the healthy development of the aluminum industry chain and stable and long-term development.
Let us work hard, under the guidance of Xi Jinping’s new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics, take the protection of national and industry interests as the basic starting point, actively implement the new development concept, build a new dual-cycle development pattern, and strive to promote the high-quality aluminum processing industry in China develop!